When will LED energy-saving lamps enter thousands of households?
LED energy-saving lamps are a hot topic. Many enterprises in the LED industry are optimistic about the future market and are involved in different evaluations. At most, they still want to miss a good opportunity.
How to look at this market, estimate the timing of the arrival of LED energy-saving lamps, and then talk about their own views.
At present, the luminous efficiency of energy-saving lamps is 80LM/W, and the LED is basically the same. It only refers to the light source part, plus the driving part and the temperature condition are still not up to 80LM/W.
Estimate the arrival time of LED energy-saving lamps the arrival time of LED energy-saving lamps depends on the LED price, in other words, depending on the LED price reduction speed and price reduction range.
The application of LED energy-saving lamps or the speed of replacing energy-saving lamps depends on the brightness development speed of W/LM value.
At present, the development of LED per W/LM value is equivalent to the current energy-saving lighting lamps. Assuming that the LED brightness value stops developing and the price is equivalent, LED energy-saving lamps will coexist with the current energy-saving lamps, of course, this one may be very small.
Personally, I started to contact with high-brightness White LED in 2002. At that time, it was used to detect the front-end light source of CMOS lens. The price of 3mm plug-in LED was more than 10 yuan/LED. At present, the equivalent LED is only 0. 6 yuan, the price has dropped 17 times in 6 years.
In 2006, a batch of 1 w led was purchased. The price of 60LM is about 24 yuan. At present, it is only 6 yuan, which has dropped 4 times in three years.
The price reduction speed of LED will be accelerated. If the price level of energy-saving lamps is reached, LED needs to be reduced to 1 yuan/W, which is the basic condition for competing for the lighting market.
According to the current price reduction rate, it is estimated that it will fall to 1 yuan/W/60LM level within three years.
If the value of LED per W/LM develops rapidly, such as 150LM/W or higher, the cost will not be much higher than the current lamps.
The current energy-saving lamps will surely attract 'death '.
The specific gravity will be greatly reduced, and it is impossible to completely remove it. Concentrate the high power W number (For example, hundreds of W)Point light source LED energy-saving lamps cannot be realized.
150LM/W currently stays in the laboratory, it is estimated that it can be commercialized in two years, and it will be commercialized in large areas in two years.
Real Energy Conservation and policies will accelerate popularization, but it will take at least five years.
Don't worry about the high price. The price is up to you and me. The market needs this process.
The trend of LED energy-saving lamps is certain, but judging from the price reduction time, it is doomed that there will not be too good market results in the short term. Even if you try to reduce the price, you will get 'fur '.
Judging from the time, the research on LED energy-saving lamps needs more investment and the incubation period is longer.
It is suggested that manufacturers should not take LED energy-saving lamps as the main business for the time being, as the future strategic research, and should not take costs as the main consideration, and cultivate high-level products for high-water products.
At present, the plug-in 5mm LED can only be used excessively as lighting. It is recommended to give up as soon as possible. This old-fashioned package is designed for indicator lights, with poor heat dissipation and serious light decay.
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